FIRE DANGER ASSESSMENT IN THE SOUTH SIBERIAN MOUNTAINS BY THE MIDCENTURY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CMIP6

Authors

  • Elena I. Parfenova V.N. Sukachev Forest Institute, Siberian Branch of the RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3221-1457
  • Nadezhda M. Tchebakova V.N. Sukachev Forest Institute, Siberian Branch of the RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46991/PYSUC.2025.59.2.473

Keywords:

hydroclimatic coefficient, Nesterov index of fire danger, GCM INM-CM5-0, climate scenarios ssp 126 и ssp 585, mountain forests

Abstract

To evaluate potential fire danger based on weather conditions the region of South Siberia's Mountains (80–110º E and 50–58º N) we used a correlation relationship between a number of days with high fire danger (Nesterov Index > 1000) and the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) of Selyaninov (Malevsky-Malevich et al., 2005), which is a ratio of monthly temperature to precipitation. Based on predicted HTC at 2040–2060 derived from the climate model INM-CM5-0 and moderate (ssp 126) and extreme (ssp 585) scenarios of CMIP6, "hot spots" of dryer climates and increased numbers of days with high fire danger were mapped across the study region with a focus on mountain forests.

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Published

2025-08-25

Issue

Vol. 59 No. 2 (266) (2025)

Section

Conference Proceedings

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Proceedings of the YSU

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

FIRE DANGER ASSESSMENT IN THE SOUTH SIBERIAN MOUNTAINS BY THE MIDCENTURY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CMIP6. (2025). Proceedings of the YSU C: Geological and Geographical Sciences, 59(2 (266), 473-481. https://doi.org/10.46991/PYSUC.2025.59.2.473