THE EFFECT OF GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION ON THE FORMATION OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS SECURITY COMPLEX: THE STRATEGIC MODELING OF ARMENIA'S SECURITY POLICY

Abstract

This scientific article explores the intricate dynamics between global geopolitical competition and the formation of the South Caucasus security complex, with a specific focus on Armenia's security policy. After the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war and the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the geopolitical significance of the South Caucasus is beginning to change. In the conditions of the deepening of the Ukrainian crisis, the global importance of the South Caucasus is highlighted as an important economic corridor of strategic communication in the "north-south" and "east-west" directions. The region is entering a complex period of strategic competition with increasing security dependence and vulnerability from global geopolitical processes. It also creates new security threats for the restoration of the balance of power in the South Caucasus and the reconstruction of the security complex. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central and South Asia create new security threats for maintaining the security balance of the South Caucasus. The trends of increasing influence of hybrid threats in the Middle Eastern region are beginning to spread in the South Caucasus as well. Based on all this, the strategic modeling of Armenia's security policy is presented in the article. It can have a guiding role in the process of developing the priorities of Armenia's foreign policy. Through strategic modeling, the article elucidates possible future scenarios for Armenia's security policy, considering varying degrees of global geopolitical competition and regional instability. This modeling enables us to better anticipate the potential trajectories of Armenia's security choices and their consequences for regional stability and security dynamics. Moreover, it highlights the interconnectedness of South Caucasus security with broader global geopolitics, emphasizing the need for a nuanced and multidimensional approach to understanding the security complex in this region