Rethinking Ukraine's Geopolitics: The Failure of Intermediation and the Origins of War

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine war stands as one of the most consequential geopolitical conflicts of the 21^st century, raising fundamental questions about the relationship between geography, power, and conflict in the post–Cold War international order. Tensions between Russia and Western powers have intensified during the conflict, and more than three years after the outbreak of the war, its outcome remains uncertain. The paper analyzes Ukraine’s geopolitical position as a key factor shaping the origins and dynamics of the ongoing war. Particular attention is given to Ukraine’s evolving relations with Russia and with Western actors, primarily the United States and the European Union. Ukraine has long occupied a central place not only in Russia’s geopolitical and geostrategic designs, but also in Russian history and identity. Yet after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine began to develop closer political and economic ties with Western institutions, following a trajectory similar to that of several former Eastern Bloc states. This article argues that Ukraine’s geopolitical position is best understood not as a buffer, but as a failed intermediary space, in which competing integration projects (Euro-Atlantic and Russian) have eroded the conditions necessary for neutrality, transforming structural in-betweenness into a catalyst for war.