Vol. 13 No. 2 (38) (2022)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46991/BYSU:D/2022.13.2
Published: 18.07.2022

Full Issue

International Relations

  • International Relations

    Conflict of Interests of the Central Powers in Transcaucasia (Armenia on the eve of the Constantinople Conference, March-June 1918)

    Gegham Petrosyan
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    Abstract

    The article covers in details that the Transcaucasia continued to be the focus of new geopolitical realignments of forces, sharp contradictions, conflicts of militarypolitical and economic interests of the Central Powers. Particular attention was paid to the fact that on the eve of the imminent defeat of the Central Powers during the First World War, the newly independent Republic of Armenia found itself in a deep political and economic crisis, continuing to remain in the most difficult vortex of Ottoman Turkey's military-political tactics and diplomatic impasses.

    References

    The Middle East and North Africa in World Politics: A Documentary Record - British-French Supremacy, 1914-1945. Yale University Press, 1979.

    Լեո, Անցյալից. Հուշեր, Թղթեր, Դատումներ. Հայոց հարց. - Հայ հեղափոխական դաշնակցություն.- Համաշխարհային պատերազմ. – Հեղափոխություն, Թիֆլիս, 1925:

    Խաչատրյան Ա., Արևելահայ և թուրք դիվանագիտական հարաբերությունները, Երևան, Հայաստանի ազգային արխիվ, 2010:

    ՀԱԱ, ֆ. 200, ց. 1, գ. 9, թ. 6:

    Հայաստանի ազգային արխիվ ( ՀԱԱ ), ֆ. 199, ց. 1, գ. 10, թ. 12:

    Հայաստանի ազգային արխիվ ( ՀԱԱ ), ֆ. 200, ց. 1, գ. 657, թ. 145:

    Հայաստանի ազգային արխիվ ( ՀԱԱ ), ֆ. 200, ց. 2, գ. 19, թ. 14:

    «Հայրենիք» ամսագիր, Բոստոն, 1924, փետրվար, էջ 110-111:

    Մեծ տերությունները, Օսմանյան կայսրությունը և հայերը ֆրանսիական արխիվներում (1914-1918), հատոր II, աշխատասիրությամբ Ա. Պեյլերյանի, թարգմ. ֆրանս. Վ. Պողոսյանի, Եր., «Հայաստան» («Գրական հայրենիք»), 2005:

  • International Relations

    Russia-Ukraine military conflict and imperatives of diversification of Armenia's foreign policy

    Marut Vardazaryan
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    Abstract

    This article reviews the reasons behind Russia-Ukraine dispute and conducts comparative analysis of this conflict in the context of worldwide geopolitical processes. Ukrainian crisis undermined system of international relations. After the conflict started, the interests of world centers became obvious. This conflict is unfolding in the prism of the US strategy retaining its global dominance and as a result, changing techno-political structure of the world economics. This article also analyzes consequences and challenges of this conflict for the Republic of Armenia and the necessity of diversifying the foreign policy in the new regional reality.

    References

    Бжезинский З., Америка и мир Беседы о будущем американской внешней политики. М.,2012.

    Бжезинский З., Вликая шахматная доска. Господство Америки и его геостратегические императивы. М., 1999.

    Бжезинский, З., Киссинджер Г., Россия в американском геополитике: до и после 2014 года. М., 2018.

    Глазьев С., Украинская катастрофа: от американской агрессии и мировой войне? М.,2015.

    Динеш Д ՚ Суза. Америка: Каким мир был бы без нее? М.,2015.

    Киссингжер Г., Понять Путина. Политика здравого снысла. М.,2014.

    Москва передала США проект договора о нерасширении НАТО на восток. /Украина упоминается отдельно.- bbc.com/Russian/ news -59691 от 17 декабрь.

    Совет национальной безопасности Турции обсудили процесс нормализации отношений с Арменией. News.am/rus/news/692972.html.

    Тогруп Исмаил (проф. Университета Анкары). Взгляд на регион из Турции – youtube.com/ results?search_guery: Тогруп + Исмаил.

    Шамир, И. Асиметричный ответ Путина, М., 2014.

Political science

  • Political science

    The Ukrainian crisis as a factor in accelerating the transition to a bipolar world

    Ashot Engoyan
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    Abstract

    Since its inception in 2014, the Ukrainian crisis has significantly exacerbated the mutual distrust between Western countries and Russia that has existed since the end of the 20th century. Moreover, in fact, a new stage of “non-contact” confrontation between them has begun, which many politicians and experts call the period of a hybrid war. It is known that it is accompanied not only by the use of complementary political, economic and information measures, but also by the open support of the “fifth columns” operating on enemy territory, or by a combination of covert operations and sabotage with tangible cyber attacks, etc.
    The sphere of hybrid wars has affected not only Russia, but also a number of other large countries that do not fit into the stencils and parameters of the “democratic platform” designated by the West. One gets the impression that the “civilized world” thinks only of one thing, that is, how to establish democratic orders in authoritarian countries and give the peoples of these countries “true freedom”? However, a detailed analysis of the policy of the “saviors of the world” reveals that simple mercantile interests, or geopolitical goals, aimed at weakening other world centers that are recovering their strength, are hidden behind a beautiful signboard.

    References

    Ходаренок М., Зинченко А. Гибридное оружие войны - Газета.ru. 10 августа 2016 г. – https://m.gazeta.ru/army/2016/08/10/10112729.shtml

    Вступил в силу шестой пакет санкций ЕС в отношении России, «Investing», от

    06.2022. – https://ru.investing.com/news/economy/article-2158993

    Yellen Says “I Was Wrong” Last Year on the Path of US inflation, «Bloomberg», от

    05.2022. – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/yellen-says-i-was-wronglast-year-on-the-path-of-us-inflation#xj4y7vzkg

    Hannon Paul. Eurozone Inflation Hits Fresh Peak as More Energy Sanctions Loom

    Wall Street Journal. May, 31, 2022. – https://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-inflation-hits-freshhigh-as-more-energy-sanctions-loom-11653995000

    Евростат – https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14636262/4-

    -AP-EN.pdf/cdf0186f-d7af-4fd3-6cbc-77471dd43c17?t=1654086521568

    Wall Street veterans offer 3 trading strategies for investors worried about a recession,

    «CNBC», от 31.05.2022. – https://ru.investing.com/news/economy/article-2158289

    Путин поддержал умеренный консерватизм, сравнив его с врачебным принципом «не навреди», «ТАСС» – https://tass.ru/politika/12728229

    Кремль увидел в предложении Джонсона создать новый союз стремление подорвать

    позиции ЕС, «Интерфакс» –https://www.interfax.ru/world/843284

    Договор между Российской федерацией и Соединенными Штатами Америки о

    гарантиях безопасности – сайт МИД РФ – ttps://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/

    Ответ НАТО и США на предложения России по безопасности. Полный текст,

    «ТАСС» – https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13594727

  • Political science

    Memetic Warfare

    Sergei Khatunov
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    Abstract

    Today the military should master a new approach to the conduct of hostilities based on the alternative thinking when using new elements of military-political power. It is necessary to use alternative thinking, one of which is a meme, in order to influence the ideological sphere of eventual enemies in order to gain an advantage in the ideological metaphysical battle. Memes are new tools for winning war. In this article we examine memetic warfare as an instrument used to divide the society, so we explain the root causes of the emergence and use of pathogenic memes, socalled mind viruses, which are actually difficult to eliminate. Therefore, in order to successfully fight on the battlefields of future, we must have professionals creating memes. Armenia must recognize the growing need for new fighters in ideological warfare ready to create memes with a powerful weapon effect. Competition is at all levels and people need to develop faster both mentally and physically, than their rivals, to be successful. Natural selection must take place not only in a genetic but also in a memetic environment. Now armed struggle has received new tools - memes, which become weapons with the advent of high-precision digital media technologies and declare a memetic war. Memes have radically changed our world and not to change anything in military affairs and not to work on strengthening the memetic power - this means to ignore the law of dependence of the forms and methods of the armed struggle on the forces and means of its conduct. Moreover, this may lead not to the disappearance of the law, but to the disappearance of those who ignore the law. Compliance with the laws of warfare is a key factor in achieving victory on all battlefields, present and future.

    References

    Blackmore, Susan. The Meme Machine. New York: Oxford University Press, 1999.

    Brodie, Richard. Virus of the Mind. London, 1996.

    Echevarria, Antulio J. Wars of ideas and the war of ideas. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College (2008). P. v. (Stable URL: http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep11904) (дата обращения 20.02.2021)

    Field manual FM 3-24 Insurgencies and Countering Insurgencies. Headquarters Department of the Army Washington, DC, 2 June 2014 https:// URL: https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp3_24pa.pdf (дата обращения 20.02.2021)

    Finkelstein, Robert. Overview Presentation of Military Memetics // URL: https://www.robotictechnologyinc.com/images/upload/file/Presentation%20Military%20Memetics%20Tutorial%20Conference%2013%20Dec%2011.pdf (дата обращения 02.03.2021)

    Giesea, Jeff. It’s Time To Embrace Memetic Warfare // Defence Strategic Communications. The official journal of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. Vol. 1. № 1. Winter 2015.

    Hancock, Brian J. Memetic Warfare: The Future of War // Military Intelligence. PB 34-10-2. Vol. 36 № 2. April - June 2010.

    Henson, H. Keith. Evolutionary Psychology, Memes and the Origin of War // The Mankind Quarterly Volume XLVI Number 4, Summer 2006. P. 449.

    Lakoff G. The political mind: why you can't understand 21st-century politics with an 18th-century brain. - New York: Penguin, 2009.

    McLuhan, M. Culture is Our Business. New York, 1970. P. 66.

    Prosser, Michael B. Memetics-A Growth Industry In Us Military Operations. United States Marine Corps. 2006.

    Siegel, Jacob. Is America Prepared for Meme Warfare? // URL: https://www.vice.com/en/article/xyvwdk/meme-warfare (дата обращения 09.02.2021)

    Буданов В. Г. Методология синергетики в постнеклассической науке и в образовании. Изд. 3-е дополн. М., 2009.

    Гюго, Виктор. Собрание сочинений в 15 томах. М., 1954. Т.5.

    Докинз, Ричард. Эгоистичный ген / Ричард Докинз; пер. с англ. Н. Фоминой. — Москва: ACT: CORPUS, 2013.

    Проект Россия. Выбор пути // URL: https://www.livelib.ru/book/146078/readpart-proekt-rossiya-vybor-puti-bez-avtora/~5 (дата обращения 16.09.2021)

  • Political science

    Behavior Change Communications During COVID-19

    Nvard Melkonyan, Yuliana Melkumyan
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    Abstract

    This article discusses the behavioral change communications used during COVID-19. The pandemic left its impact not only on people's health, but also on people's lifestyles and daily behavior, creating a "new normal". The concept of "new normal" is used today in the context of COVID-19: what used to be abnormal and unacceptable is now becoming commonplace. Changing the behavioral norms is at the core of fighting the pandemic, which includes building skills, capacity and motivation. Once the barriers to behavior change are identified, it is possible to ensure the desired behavioral change. The scientifically studied behavior change methods include a range of approaches, from education to role modeling. One of the most difficult obstacles to overcome is social stereotypes. The main goals of the behavior change strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic were to contribute to the dissemination of anti-pandemic rules and increase of the vaccination level. In the context of behavioral change communications, experts argued that there is still no clearly proven effective treatment for the coronavirus; the only way to reduce deaths is vaccination. The analysis of measures taken to promote the vaccination process in Armenia shows that some of them were repressive; instead of overcoming stereotypes and reinforcing positive experiences, the vaccination became a means of avoiding economic harm, the emotional context of fear was used instead of positive emotions.

    References

    Behavior change communication (bcc) for hiv/aids, A strategic framework September 2002, Family Health International Institute for HIV/AIDS 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 700 Arlington, VA 22201 U.S.A (https://www.hivpolicy.org/Library/HPP000533.pdf).

    Kusum Wagle, Behavior Change Communication (BCC): Importance and Strategies, September 23, 2019. https://www.publichealthnotes.com/1142-2/

    LaMorte, W. W. Behavioral change models․ Boston University School of Public Health, 2019, September 9. https://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/SB/BehavioralChangeTheories/BehavioralChangeTheories6.html.

    Marshall Joe. Post-COVID-19 behaviour – the new normal or nothing new? // Post-COVID-19 behaviour – the new normal or nothing new? - PMLiVE.

    Salazar Mary Kathryn, MN, COHN, Comparison of Four Behavioral Theories, AAOHN JOURNAL, MARCH 1991, VOL. 39 (3). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/216507999103900305.

    Аймалетдинов Т. А., Гильдебрандт И. А., Никишова Е. Н., Рассадина Д. С., Новая нормальность. Образ жизни, рынки, инфраструктура и коммуникации после пандемии/ Аналитический центр НАФИ, Издательство НАФИ, М.: 2020։

    Булатов А. С. Новая нормальность // Мировое и национальное хозяйство. 2020. Вып. 3 (52).

    Вступительное слово Генерального директора ВОЗ на брифинге для СМИ по COVID-19 - 22 апреля 2020 г․ https://www.who.int/ru/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19--22-april-2020.

    Липпман У. Общественное мнение / Пер. с англ. Т. В. Барчунова, под ред. К. А. Левинсон, К. В. Петренко. М.: Институт Фонда «Общественное мнение», 2004:

    Общение с пациентами о вакцинации от COVID-19, ВОЗ, Европейское региональное бюро, 2021. https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/341841/WHO-EURO-2021-2282-42037-58877-rus.pdf.

    Հանրային կարծիքի ուսումնասիրություն. Հայաստանի առկա բնակչություն, Միջազգային հանրապետան ինստիտուտ, հուլիս 2021 (https://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/armenian_final_presentation_09_03_2021.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3f-J_W8zV4VpYv94fdoO1QDBcUQ1-LjenK9sNIYhdF1jyoxPGJCGh8WZ0 ):

    ՀՀ առողջապահության նախարարի N 65-ն հրաման ՀՀ առողջապահության նախարարի 2020 թվականի օգոստոսի 4-ի թիվ 17-Ն եվ 2020 թվականի սեպտեմբերի 18-ի թիվ 24-Ն հրամաններում փոփոխություններ եվ լրացումներ կատարելու մասին, 21 օգոստոսի 2021՝ https://www.arlis.am/DocumentView.aspx?docid=155352:

    ՀՀ առողջապահության նախարարության ֆեյսբուքյան պաշտոնական կայքէջից, 23 մայիսի 2022՝ https://www.facebook.com/ministryofhealthcare:

    ՀՀ Արդարադատության նախարարության պաշտոնական կայքէջից, 15 հոկտեմբերի, 2021 թվական՝ https://www.facebook.com/mojarmenia:

    ՎՓՀ ռազմավարության կառուցման մոդելի սխեման տե՛ս Behavior change communication (bcc) for hiv/aids, A strategic framework September 2002, Family Health International Institute for HIV/AIDS 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 700 Arlington, VA 22201 U.S.A https://www.hivpolicy.org/Library/HPP000533.pdf.

  • Political science

    Conspiracy Theories in the Core of Discussion about COVID-19

    Viktorya Melkonyan
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    Abstract

    Partially justified, intentionally directed and unreliable conspiracy theories are real challenges on the way to control and overcome modern crises. In parallel, the role of information technologies is growing in the all spheres of human lives, which means that the quality of information and technologies predetermines the quality of human resources, accordingly also the level of development of modern societies and the perspectives of their future evolution. The brilliant example may serve actively disseminated disinformation along with conspiracy theories in time of Covid-19, which is linked to different international and local actors. The article discusses the theory and practice of anti-scientific conspiracy theories and stresses the negative influence of such theories on formation of public thinking and direction of public behavior.

    References

    Douglas, K. M., & Sutton, R. M. (2011). Does it take one to know one? Endorsement of conspiracy theories is influenced by personal willingness to conspire. // British Journal of Social Psychology, p. 50.

    Einstein, K. L., & Glick, D. M., (2015), Do I think BLS data are BS? The consequences of conspiracy theories. // Political Behavior, doi:10.1007/s11109-014-9287-z, p. 37․

    Fetzer J.; Information: Does it have to be true? Minds and Machines, 14(2), May, 2004, 223–229 pp

    Franks, B., Bangerter, A., & Bauer, M. W., (2013), Conspiracy theories as quasi-religious mentality: An integrated account from cognitive science, social representations theory, and frame theory. // Frontiers in Psychology, doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00424, p. 4.

    Grigoryan A., (2020), Disinformation and Other Tools of Antidemocratic Influence: An Armenian Outlook in the EU and Eastern Partnership Context, EaP Monthly Bulletin. https://centreforpolicystudies.org/gallery/CPS_EaP_bulletin2.pdf

    Jolley, D., & Douglas, K. M., (2013), The social consequences of conspiracism: Exposure to conspiracy theories decreases intentions to engage in politics and to reduce one’s carbon footprint. // British Journal of Psychology, doi:10.1111/bjop.12018, p. 105.

    Jolley, D., Meleady, R., & Douglas, K. M., (2019), Exposure to intergroup conspiracy theories promotes prejudice which spreads across groups. // British Journal of Psychology. doi:10.1111/bjop.12385.

    Kovic, M., & Füchslin, T., (2018), Probability and conspiratorial thinking. // Applied Cognitive Psychology, doi:10.1002/acp.3408, p. 32.

    Lewandowski, S., Oberauer, K., & Gignac, G. (2013). NASA faked the moon landing—therefore (climate) science is a hoax: An anatomy of the motivated rejection of science. // Psychological Science, p. 24.

    Lewandowsky, S., & Cook, J., (2020), The Conspiracy Theory Handbook, p. 3// The Conspiracy Theory Handbook | Center For Climate Change Communication

    Sapountzis, A., & Condor, S., (2013), Conspiracy accounts as intergroup theories: Challenging dominant understandings of social power and political legitimacy// Political Psychology, doi:10.1111/pops.12015, p. 34.

    Steven, L․, & Krasenberg J., (2017), Dealing with fake news, conspiracy theories, and propaganda in the classroom,” Ran Centre of Excellence, Budapest.

    Swami, V., Coles, R., Stieger, S., Pietschnig, J., Furnham, A., Rehim, S., & Voracek, M. (2011). Conspiracist ideation in Britain and Austria: Evidence of a monological belief system and associations between individual psychological differences and real-world and fictitious conspiracy theories. // British Journal of Psychology, p. 102.

    Uscinski J․ E. &. Parent, J․ M․, (2014), American Conspiracy Theories // Oxford University Press․

    Uscinski, J. E., & Parent, J. M., (2014), American conspiracy theories. // Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

  • Political science

    Azerbaijan and diversionary war theory quantitative analysis

    Henrik Sergoyan, Vahan Martirosyan, Grigor Bezirganyan
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    Abstract

    The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most intractable interstate in the Post-Soviet region. As such, analysis of the factors underlying the conflict has captured the attention of political scientists and pundits alike. Deemed largely a frozen conflict since the mid-1990s, speculations currently abound concerning reasons behind sporadic and large-scale flare-ups since 2015. One line of reasoning leverages the concept of “diversionary war theory,” which states that interstate warfare is often initiated by the incumbent leadership of at least one party to the conflict that is facing strong domestic pressure, with the goal of creating a rally around the flag effect and proving leadership competence. In particular, many posit that increasing fighting, most notably exemplified by the April 2016 clashes and the 44-day war in 2020, is a direct consequence of declining oil prices and the resulting economic woes in Azerbaijan. We set out to examine this theory using through a data scientific approach, employing proxy indicators for economic and social stability, oil price fluctuations, and diplomacy-warfare dynamics surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Since the proliferation of mass media and advanced machine learning algorithms for natural language processing, we have the capacity to generate granular and nuanced insights concerning conflict dynamics, using open - source intelligence such as news or social media. As such, we leverage the Global Database of Events Language and Tone (GDELT) to quantify relative levels of diplomacy, warfare and social unrest. Our research shows a stark shift in the relationship between conflict dynamics and the economic situation in Azerbaijan before and after 2014. After 2014, warfare and diplomacy dynamics had a strong negative correlated with the difference between the breakeven oil price set by the government of Azerbaijan to balance its budget and the price of oil in international markets.

    References

    Sobek, D. (2007). Rallying Around the Podesta: Testing Diversionary Theory Across Time. In Journal of Peace Research (Vol. 44, Issue 1, pp. 29–45). SAGE Publications. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307072178

    CORDEN, W. M. (1984). BOOMING SECTOR AND DUTCH DISEASE ECONOMICS: SURVEY AND CONSOLIDATION *. In Oxford Economic Papers (Vol. 36, Issue 3, pp. 359–380). Oxford University Press (OUP). https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041643

    Kanat, K. (2014). Diversionary Foreign Policy in Authoritarian States: The Use of Multiple Diversionary Strategies by Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War. In Journal of Strategic Security (Vol. 7, Issue 1, pp. 16–32). University of South Florida Libraries. https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.7.1.2

    Transparency International. (n.d.). Azerbaijan Country Data. Retrieved February 22, 2022, from https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/azerbaijan

    Democracy Index 2019 A year of democratic setbacks and popular protest. (2020). The Economist Intelligence Unit. http://www.eiu.com/Handlers/WhitepaperHandler.ashx?fi=Democracy-Index-2019.pdf&mode=wp&campaignid=democracyindex2019

    Reporters Without Borders. (n.d). 2020 World Press Freedom Index. Retrieved February 23, 2022 from https://rsf.org/en/ranking

    International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. (n.d.). The Panama Papers: Exposing the Rogue Offshore Finance Industry. Retrieved November 22, 2020, from https://www.icij.org/investigations/panama-papers/

    Antidze M., & Bagirova, N. (2019, August 6). Azerbaijan targets petrochemicals in push to reduce reliance on oil and gas. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/azerbaijan-petrochemicals-idUSL8N25249J

    FRED Economic Data. (n.d). Breakeven Fiscal Oil Price for Azerbaijan. Retrieved November 22, 2020 from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AZEPZPIOILBEGUSD

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