Energy Security and Economic Resilience of RA in the Context of Current Geopolitical Developments
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46991/BYSU.G.2025.16.2.054Keywords:
energy security, Economic resilience, Geopolitical risks, Energy intensity, Primary energy supplyAbstract
This article analyzes the current manifestations of Armenia’s energy security and economic resilience in the context of recent geopolitical changes. It assesses the current state of Armenia’s energy security and economic resilience based on key indicators used in international policy and well-supported in the academic literature. The analysis shows that the adopted indicators - such as energy intensity, external energy dependence, and measures of supplier concentration - have methodological limitations and do not fully reflect the country’s structural and geopolitical specificities. The main goal of this study is to examine the limitations and gaps of commonly used energy security indicators in the context of Armenia’s green transition policies and current geopolitical developments. By analyzing various indicators of energy security and economic resilience and contextualizing them for the Armenian economy, a multi-component qualitative assessment has been investigated, showing that these indicators alone do not provide a comprehensive picture and do not fully reflect the country’s structural and geopolitical characteristics. Energy policy can be more effective and targeted when informed by clear and integrated assessments of these factors. Such an approach is essential to support Armenia’s long-term energy security and economic resilience.
References
Ang, W., Choong, W. L., & Ng, T. S. Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42:1077–1093, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.10.064.
ArmStat. (n.d.). SDG 7.3.1 – Share of population with access to electricity and clean cooking fuel. Retrieved November 19, 2025, from https://sdg.armstat.am/7-3-1/.
ArmStat. Energy Balance of the Republic of Armenia, 2015–2023. Yerevan: ArmStat, 2023. https://armstat.am/file/doc/99544448.pdf.
ArmStat. Non observed economy in the national accounts of Armenia: Implementation of 2008 SNA and measuring of NoE. Yerevan: Statistical Committee of RA / UN ECE, 2021.
Aweke, T., & Navrud, S. Valuing energy poverty costs: Household welfare loss from electricity blackouts in developing countries. Energy Economics, 109, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105943.
Ayana, O.U., Degaga, J. Effects of rural electrification on household welfare: a meta-regression analysis. International Review of Economics, 69(2):209–261, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12232-022-00391-7.
Bajo-Buenestado, F. The effect of blackouts on household electrification status: Evidence from Kenya. Energy Economics, 94, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105067.
Bhattacharyya, C. Energy economics: Concepts, issues, markets and governance. 2011. https://doi.org/10.1108/17506221211216580.
Bo, S., Chen, T., & Liu, C. Trade shocks, industrial growth, and electrification in early 20th-century China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 50(3):732–749, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.02.001.
Böhringer, C., & Bortolamedi, M. Sense and no(n)-sense of energy security indicators. Ecological Economics, 119:359–371, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.09.020.
Carranza, R., & Meeks, R. Energy efficiency and electricity reliability. Review of Economics and Statistics, 103(3):461–475, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1162/resta00912.
CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research. Increasing the Economic Resilience of Armenia. Warsaw: CASE, 2024, 59.
Chen, H., Yan, K., Gong, H., Geng, H., & Yuan, X.-C. Assessing the business interruption costs from power outages in China. Energy Economics, 105, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105757.
Chepeliev, I., Osorio-Rodarte, I., & van der Mensbrugghe, D. Distributional impacts of carbon pricing policies under the Paris agreement: Inter and intra-regional perspectives. Energy Economics, 102:105530, 2021. URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321004084.
Cherp, A., & Jewell, J. Measuring energy security: from universal indicators to contextualized frameworks. The Routledge Handbook of Energy Security, pages 330–355, 2011.
Cherp, A., & Jewell, J. The Concept of Energy Security: Beyond the Four As. Energy Policy, 75 (2014): 415–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.09.005.
Elliott, J. R., Nguyen-Tien, V., & Strobl, E. A. Power outages and firm performance: A hydro-IV approach for a single electricity grid. Energy Economics, 103, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105571.
Energy Balance of the Republic of Armenia for 2023. Scientific Research Institute of Energy, 2024. https://api.mtad.am/api/file/download/page/8349.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Armenia Diagnostic 2024. EBRD, 2024.
FM Global. Resilience Index: Explore the Data.
Frondel, M., & Schmidt, C. M. A measure of a nation’s physical energy supply risk. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54(2):208–215, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2013.10.003.
Garaffa, B., Cunha, S. L., Cruz, T., Bezerra, P., Lucena, A. F. P., & Gurgel, A. C. Distributional effects of carbon pricing in Brazil under the Paris Agreement. Energy Economics, 101:105396, 2021.
Government of the RA. Energy Security Concept of the RA. Yerevan, 2007.
Government of the RA. On Approving the Strategic Program for the Development of the Energy Sector of the Republic of Armenia (up to 2040) and the Program-Schedule Ensuring Its Implementation, and Declaring Certain Decisions of the Government of the Republic of Armenia Null and Void. Resolution No. 48-L, January 14, 2021.
Gracceva, F., & Zeniewski, P. A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system. Applied Energy, 123:335–348, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.12.018.
International Energy Agency (IEA). Armenia 2022. IEA, Paris. 2022. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
International Energy Agency (IEA). Armenia Energy Profile. IEA, 2023.
Jansen, C., & Seebregts, A. J. Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be measured and valued? Energy Policy, 38(4):1654–1664, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.047.
Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. Jr. Power and Interdependence. Longman Classics in Political Science. 4th ed. Boston: Pearson, 2011.
Le Coq, J., & Paltseva, E. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union. Energy Policy, 37(11):4474–4481, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.05.069.
Lefevre, B. Measuring the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration. Energy Policy, 38(4):1635–1644, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.003.
Meles, T. H. Impact of power outages on households in developing countries: Evidence from Ethiopia. Energy Economics, 91, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104882.
Mirjalili, S. H. Economic Resilience and Vulnerability: Concepts and Indices. MPRA Working Paper, 2025. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/126492/1/MPRA_paper_126492.pdf.
OECD. Development Co-operation Report 2020: Learning from Crises, Building Resilience. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1787/f6d42aa5-en.
Ritchie, H., Rosado, P., & Roser, M. Energy. Our World in Data, 2023. Accessed November 10, 2025. https://ourworldindata.org/energy.
Sovacool, K. An international assessment of energy security performance. Ecological Economics, 88:148–158, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.01.019.
Tsiotas, D. A 3D Index for Measuring Economic Resilience with Application to the Modern International and Global Financial Crises. arXiv, 2022. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2202.08564.
Vandyck, M., Weitzel, K., Wojtowicz, L., Rey Los Santos, L., Maftei, A., & Riscado, S. Climate policy design, competitiveness and income distribution: A macro-micro assessment for 11 EU countries. Energy Economics, 103:105538, 2021.
World Bank. The Country Climate and Development Report: Armenia. 2023/24.
World Bank. World Bank Report Urges Armenia to Prioritize Climate Action for Energy Security. Devdiscourse, November 11, 2024.
Yergin, D. Ensuring Energy Security. Foreign Affairs 85, no. 2 (March–April 2006): 69–82. https://doi.org/10.2307/20031912.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Liana Karapetyan
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
