Modeling Time Series of International Prices for Natural Gas

Abstract

An approach for modeling the natural gas international prices time series is considered. The method is based on the spectral analysis. We discovered fluctuations in studied time series. Thus, circles and periods of fluctuations of studied time series have been assessed. The Fourier model of natural gas international prices time series is developed and the assessment of the accuracy of the model is given. An assessment is based on the Theil inequality coefficient and its proportions: bias, variance, and covariance.