Beyond the Target: Geopolitical Implications of the US Sanctions Against Russia on Armenia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46991/jia.2026.2.1.022Keywords:
US Sanctions, Sanctions Theory, Geopolitical Decoupling, Small-State Agency, Dual-Track DiplomacyAbstract
This paper examines the unintended systemic consequences of US sanctions against Russia on the Republic of Armenia between 2022 and 2026. Anchored in Sanctions Theory, the study identifies a ‘Sanctions Paradox’: while restrictive measures initially generated short-term economic gains through diverted trade and human capital influxes, they simultaneously accelerated Armenia’s strategic vulnerabilities by eroding Russia’s security guarantees. Specifically, the temporary windfall from re-exports and tech relocations created an unsustainable economic dependency that directly conflicted with Yerevan’s urgent need for political diversification. Utilizing a qualitative-dominant mixed-methods approach, the research analyzes how this paradox catalyzed a definitive realignment with the West. Central to this shift are the 2025 EU Integration Act and the 2026 TRIPP Framework Agreement, which serve as instruments of ‘Contractual Sovereignty’ and ‘Commercial Deterrence’. By navigating this dual-track reality, the findings offer a novel framework for understanding how intermediary economies leverage institutional pivots to survive great-power economic warfare. Armenia’s trajectory suggests that small-state agency in a sanctioned environment is increasingly defined by security. The article contributes to sanctions theory by demonstrating that consequential effects of sanctions may occur not only within the target state itself, but within intermediary states whose economic and security dependencies are transformed in opposite directions.
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