The "New Yalta" Framework: Great-Power Bargaining in the Russia–Ukraine War and the Transactional Geopolitics

Abstract

This article critically examines the structural transformation of the transatlantic security architecture and the severe erosion of the post-Cold War international order during the latter stages of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Following years of unified Western military deterrence and strict adherence to the principles of territorial sovereignty, the 2025 inauguration of the Trump administration catalyzed a profound geopolitical rupture. By analyzing back-channel diplomacy, the Anchorage summit, and the restrictive 28-point American peace proposal, this study traces Washington’s rapid pivot toward transactional, bilateral negotiations with Moscow. The analysis reveals how this superpower-centric mediation systematically marginalized European allies and applied coercive diplomatic pressure on Kyiv to accept maximalist Russian territorial demands. The paper argues that the United States has actively retreated from the universalist doctrine of international law, adopting a nineteenth-century spheres-of-influence model. Ultimately, this emerging “New Yalta” framework implicitly validates military conquest as a legitimate tool of statecraft, institutionalizing a highly volatile, frozen conflict while simultaneously forcing a rapid, continent-wide militarization of Europe in direct response to an increasingly unreliable American security umbrella.