Risks and Opportunities for Central Asian Countries in the Context of New Geopolitics

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46991/JOPS/2025.4.10.011

Keywords:

Central Asia, Russia, China, new geopolitics, EAEU, CSTO, Belt and Road Initiative, SCO, opportunities, risks

Abstract

The article analyzes the main risks and opportunities for the Central Asian countries in the context of new geopolitical transformations. In this sense, the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia in the period from 2022 to 2024 is undergoing significant changes that affect regional stability and global interaction. The article examines Central Asia in terms of strategic importance and vulnerability to external pressure, influenced by various global initiatives and changing power dynamics. The countries of the region face a number of risks, such as economic instability, dependence on external energy resources, as well as geopolitical rivalry between major powers, in particular Russia and China. In the context of new geopolitics, it is critical for the Central Asian countries to maintain independence and sovereignty, ensure economic development and strengthen political legitimacy. Despite these challenges, cooperation with international actors and participation in various integration structures can contribute to achieving national interests and minimizing risks. Therefore, the article analyzes the key vectors of the foreign policy of the Central Asian countries, paying special attention to the Russian and Chinese vectors, and considers the opportunities and risks that these countries face in the new geopolitical reality.

Author Biography

  • Fatima Kukeyeva, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University

    Doctor of History, Professor at the Department of International Relations and World Economy at Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty

References

Abramov, Nikolay M. et al. 2023. “Problems and Prospects for the Development of Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union.” In: Advances in Natural, Human-Made, and Coupled Human-Natural Systems Research: Volume 1, edited by Svetlana G. Maximova, Roman I. Raikin, Alexander A. Chibilev, and Marina M. Silantyeva, 187-194. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-75483-9_19.

Ambrosio, Thomas. 2023. “Between Threat, Alliance, and Multivectorism: Kazakh-Russian Relations in the Wake of the Russo-Ukrainian War.” In: A Revolt in the Steppe: Understanding Kazakhstan’s January Events of 2022, edited by Jean-François Caron, 25-52. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-0783-0_3.

Arynov, Zhanibek, and Temirlan Umirbekov. 2025. “Contesting the Unknown? Public Perceptions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.” Contemporary Security Policy (March): 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2025.2474868.

Baisalbek, Olzhas, Ka Wai Christopher Hor, Fatima Kukeyeva et al. 2024. “Exploring Opportunities and Limitations of Kazakhstan’s Multilateral and Bilateral Cooperation in Renewable Energy within Central Asia: A Comprehensive Analysis.” East Asia 41: 369-385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-024-09425-z.

Belova, Irina N., Elena A. Egorycheva, and Filipp D. Belov. 2023. “EAEU and BRI: Current Prospects of Mutual Cooperation.” In: Sustainable Development Risks and Risk Management: A Systemic View from the Positions of Economics and Law, edited by Elena G. Popkova, 269-273. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34256-1_47.

Boungou, Whelsy, and Alhonita Yatié. 2022. “The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns.” Economics Letters 215, 110516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110516.

Cameron, Sarah. 2020. “Russia Looks East: Kazakhs and the Russian and Soviet State.” Russian Studies in History 59 (4): 330-335. https://doi.org/10.1080/10611983.2022.2065171.

Dessein, Bart. 2025. “The “Belt and Road Initiative” and Intercultural Dialogue.” In: The Belt and Road Initiative: Past, Present, Future, edited by Gao Xiang, Kostas Gouliamos, Liu Zuokui, and Christos Kassimeris, 35-51. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-1128-7_2.

Gelmanova, Zoya, Anastassiya Mezentseva, Ylia Valeeva, and Asem Aldabaeva. 2023. “Conditions for the Formation of Sustainable Energy in Kazakhstan.” In: Finance, Economics, and Industry for Sustainable Development: Proceedings of the 3rd International Scientific Conference on Sustainable Development (ESG 2022), St. Petersburg 2022, edited by Anna Rumyantseva, Hod Anyigba, Elena Sintsova, and Natalia Vasilenko, 93-107. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-30498-9_10.

Hu, Danyang. 2024. “Fluctuations in Chevron’s Share Price in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War”. Highlights in Business, Economics and Management 24 (January): 427-435. https://doi.org/10.54097/j2vz6880.

Hudson, Victoria. 2022. “The Impact of Russian Soft Power in Kazakhstan: Creating an Enabling Environment for Cooperation between Nur-Sultan and Moscow.” Journal of Political Power 15 (3): 469-494. https://doi.org/10.1080/2158379X.2022.2127280.

IEA. 2022. Oil Market Report - December 2022, IEA, Paris. Accessed March 16, 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2022.

IEA. 2023. World Energy Outlook 2023, IEA, Paris. Accessed March 16, 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023.

Klycheva, Zhamilia. 2024. “Dragon’s Embrace: China’s Growing Influence in Central Asia.” In: The Great Power Competition Volume 6: The Rise of China, edited by Adib Farhadi, Mark Grzegorzewski, and Anthony J. Masys, 153-183. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-70767-4_8.

Kydyrbek, Farangis, Ka Wai Christopher Hor, Gulnara Baikushikova, Fatima Kukeyeva, and Malik Augan. 2025. “Aligning the Belt and Road Initiative with UN Sustainable Development Goals: Kazakhstan’s Role and Challenges.” European Review: 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1017/S106279872510015X.

Liefert, William. 2023. “Why is Russia restricting its fertiliser and crop exports?” Eurochoices 23 (1): 4-10. https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692x.12419.

Liu, Zuokui. 2025. “The “Pan-Securitization” of the EU’s Connectivity Policy and China–EU Cooperation.” In: The Belt and Road Initiative: Past, Present, Future, edited by Gao Xiang, Kostas Gouliamos, Liu Zuokui, and Christos Kassimeris, 259-278. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-1128-7_2.

Malikbayeva, Saniya, and Gabit Gabdullin. 2023. “The Rise of Anti-Eurasian Sentiment in Kazakhstan.” In: Securitization and Democracy in Eurasia: Transformation and Development in the OSCE Region, edited by Anja Mihr, Paolo Sorbello, and Brigitte Weiffen, 63-76. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16659-4_4.

McCarthy, Daniel J., Sheila M. Puffer, and Daniel M. Satinsky. 2019. “Will Russia have a role in the changing global economy? Contrasting Western and Russian cultural lenses.” Cross Cultural & Strategic Management 26 (2): 265-289. https://doi.org/10.1108/CCSM-10-2018-0164.

Mihr, Anja. 2023. “European democracy’s Response to the BRI.” In: Securitization and Democracy in Eurasia: Transformation and Development in the OSCE Region, edited by Anja Mihr, Paolo Sorbello, and Brigitte Weiffen, 375-392. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16659-4_26.

Nicharapova, Jildiz. 2023. “Belt and Road Initiative’s Economic Impact on Central Asia. The Cases of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.” In: The Palgrave Handbook of Globalization with Chinese Characteristics: The Case of the Belt and Road Initiative, edited by Paulo Afonso B. Duarte, Francisco José B. S. Leandro, and Enrique Martínez Galán, 657-670. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6700-9_39.

Nyshanbayev, Nurbolat, Kairat Bekov, Zhulduz Baizakova, and Alipbayev Amangeldy. 2024. “The Republic of Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy.” New Perspectives 33(1): 43-63. https://doi.org/10.1177/2336825X241308432.

OECD. 2023. Insights on the Business Climate in Kazakhstan. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/bd780306-en.

Özgür, Tüfekçi. 2024. “The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the impact of Russia-China rivalry in Central Asia.” The Journal of Institute of Black Sea Studies (Karadeniz Araştırmaları Enstitüsü Dergisi) 10 (21) (June): 1-12. https://doi.org/10.31765/karen.1466149.

Pomfret, Richard. 2023. “Rail Transport Corridors in the CAREC Region: Long-Term Supply Chain Resilience and Short-Term Shocks.” Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 1422. https://doi.org/10.56506/HUUQ1858.

Solingen, Etel. 2025. “‘Global Value Chains in a Brave New World of Geopolitics.’” Journal of Political Power 18 (1): 112-124. https://doi.org/10.1080/2158379X.2024.2447249.

Sultonov, Mirzosaid. 2022. “Regional Economic and Financial Interconnectedness and the Impact of Sanctions: The Case of the Commonwealth of Independent States.” Journal of Risk and Financial Management 15 (12): 565. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15120565.

Sylos Labini, Francesco, and Matteo Caravani. 2025. The War in Ukraine and the Hegemonic Crisis. In: Conflict, Climate and Inequalities: Convergence to a World Crisis. Springer, Singapore, pp. 39-61. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-5840-4_3.

Toropygin, Andrei, and Darya Lyubina. 2024. “Issues of Modern Security in Central Asia.” In: Proceedings of Topical Issues in International Political Geography (TIPG 2022), edited by Radomir Bolgov et al., 447-460. Springer Geography. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-50407-5_37.

Urinboyev, Rustamjon. 2024. The Political Economy of Central Asian Law: A Law and Society Analysis. In: The Political Economy of Central Asian Law: A Law and Society Analysis. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, pp. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-55341-7_1.

Usserova, Karlygash, Fatima Kukeyeva, Kuralay Baizakova, and Meruert Ussen. 2025. “Prospects for Regional Development of Central Asia: Economic and Political Aspects.” Asian Journal of Political Science (April): 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/02185377.2025.2494778.

Xia, Jiechang, Yi Liu, Ziyan Xu, and Hang Yuan. 2024. The Belt and Road Initiative: Achievements and Challenges. In: The China Railway Express and the Belt and Road Initiative. Springer, Singapore, pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0964-9_1.

Xing, Guangcheng. 2025. “The “Belt and Road” Initiative and Eurasian Regional Cooperation.” In: The Belt and Road Initiative: Past, Present, Future, edited by Gao Xiang, Kostas Gouliamos, Liu Zuokui, and Christos Kassimeris, 123-137. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-1128-7_7.

Yu, Hong. 2022. “Is the Belt and Road Initiative 2.0 in the Making? The Case of Central Asia.” Journal of Contemporary Asia 53 (3): 535-547. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2022.2122858.

Zhang, Bin, Sheripzhan Nadyrov, Natalia Sorokina, and Liliya Chaynikova. 2023. “Role of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth in Central Asia․” Journal of Law and Sustainable Development 11 (2). São Paulo (SP):e385. https://doi.org/10.55908/sdgs.v11i2.385.

Downloads

Published

2025-07-09

Issue

Section

European Integration

How to Cite

Kukeyeva, F. . (2025). Risks and Opportunities for Central Asian Countries in the Context of New Geopolitics. Journal of Political Science: Bulletin of Yerevan University, 4(1(10), 11-29. https://doi.org/10.46991/JOPS/2025.4.10.011

Similar Articles

1-10 of 60

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.