SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA IN 2024–2025․ GEOANALYTICS OF TRANSACTIONS AND POLARIZATION FACTORS

Abstract

This geo-analytical study, based on official data from the Real Estate Cadastre of the Republic of Armenia, examines the spatial structure of real estate transactions for 2024–2025. It examines purchases and sales by legal entities (with a particular focus on December 2025), secured transactions, leases, land transactions, and the purchase of apartments in multi-apartment buildings. A pronounced center-periphery market pattern is identified, with Yerevan serving as the absolute center of liquidity, capital concentration, and banking activity, while most marzes exhibit stagnation or decline. In December 2025, legal entities sold almost five times more properties than they bought, with the overwhelming majority of sales occurring in Yerevan. The overall 7.5% increase in secured transactions was driven exclusively by Yerevan and the surrounding Kotayk Region, forming a "collateral belt," outside of which real estate loses its financial functionality. The rental market contracted by 5.7%, with the decline correlated with distance from the capital and population outflow, with the exception of localized growth in Ararat and Syunik. Land transactions declined by 11.6% amid a 35.3% surge in apartment purchases, indicating a structural shift from individual development to consolidated multi-apartment housing, primarily in the capital's metropolitan area. The study concludes that spatial polarization is further developing: Yerevan and its surrounding suburbs are becoming the only zone of high liquidity, active secured lending, and sustainable transaction growth, while peripheral regions risk falling into a zone of market atrophy. The study presents two cartograms visualizing legal entity transactions and the intensity of transactions per 1000 people.