Water Insecurity in the South Caucasus: A Hydro-Strategic Assessment of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Abstract

The intersection of water security and geopolitical tensions in the South Caucasus is nowhere more evident than in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This article provides a comparative analysis of the hydrostrategic aspects of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, emphasizing the duality of water resources as a source of conflict and a potential unifying force. Control over river basins such as the Kura-Araks River and the Sarsang Reservoir, vital for both countries, has become a top priority for Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this regard, the Kura-Araks River basin, which supplies vital water resources to both countries, has often been the source of confrontation and struggle for control, determining not only military strategies but also economic and political stability. Similarly, the Sarsang Reservoir, located in the conflict zone, symbolizes a hydropolitical struggle, where access to water determines the survival of local communities and regional security as a whole. Using a hydrostrategic approach, this article examines the multifaceted impact of water scarcity, control over infrastructure, and climate vulnerability on the escalation of hostilities. The potential of water diplomacy and the possibility that shared water resources will ultimately foster cooperation rather than conflict between these two regional powers is also considered.