US policy in the South Caucasus prior to and after the 2020 Karabakh War in the Context of the Evolving Regional and International Geopolitics

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46991/JOPS/2022.1.3.036

Keywords:

United States, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, South Caucasus, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, geopolitics

Abstract

The article analyzes the main directions of US foreign policy in the South Caucasus before and after the Artsakh war in 2020, taking into account new regional and geopolitical challenges.

It is shown that the United States considers the policy in the South Caucasus in the context of Russian-American relations. In recent years, the South Caucasus has not been included in the US foreign policy priorities, yielding to both the Asia-Pacific region and Ukraine. Under US President Trump, the three main US goals in the region were to include the South Caucasus in a policy of maximum pressure on Iran, launch the Southern Gas Corridor, and contain Russia. The US took a rather passive position during the 2020 Artsakh war, limiting itself only to calls for a cessation of hostilities and the organization of a meeting between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington.

As a result of the study, it was substantiated that after the end of the Artsakh war, the main goal of the US was to eliminate the Russian monopoly in the process of resolving the conflict. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and the complete breakdown of Russian-American relations, the weakening of Russia’s position in the South Caucasus became the cornerstone of US regional policy.

Author Biography

Benyamin Poghosyan, Russian-Armenian University

PhD in History, Associate Professor of the Chair of Political Science at Russian-Armenian University

References

Broers, Laurence. 2022. “Is Azerbaijan planning a long-term presence in Armenia?” Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 26 September 2022. Accessed Oktober 1, 2022. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/09/azerbaijan-planning-long-term-presence-armenia.

Crisis Group. 2021. “Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh.” Report 264: Europe & Central Asia, June 9, 2021. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/264-post-war-prospects-nagorno-karabakh.

Crisis Group. 2022. “Nagorno-Karabakh: Seeking a Path to Peace in the Ukraine War’s Shadow.” Briefing 93: Europe & Central Asia, April 22, 2022. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/nagorno-karabakh-seeking-path-peace-ukraine.

Danielyan, Emil. 2008. “Iran-Armenia Gas Pipeline Inaugurated.” RFE/RL, Inc., December 1, 2008. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/1598643.html.

Donmez, Beyza Binnur, and Ruslan Rehimov. 2021. “New Azerbaijani connecting corridor set to unite entire Turkic world.” Anadolu Agency, October 26, 2021. Accessed Oktober 1, 2022. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/new-azerbaijani-connecting-corridor-set-to-unite-entire-turkic-world/2403788.

EUR-Lex. 2018. “Comprehensive and enhanced Partnership Agreement between the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community and their Member States, of the one part, and the Republic of Armenia, of the other part.” Official Journal of the European Union L 23/4: 4-466. http://data.europa.eu/eli/agree_internation/2018/104/oj.

Herszenhorn, David M. 2022. “US, NATO deliver written replies to Russia on security demands: Western leaders have called many of the demands non-starters.” POLITICO, January 26, 2022. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.politico.eu/article/us-delivers-written-reply-to-russia-on-security-demands/.

Hess, Maximilian. 2022. “Russia Can’t Protect Its Allies Anymore: Moscow is overstretched in Ukraine-and Armenia is suffering the consequences.” Foreign Policy, September 22, 2022. Accessed Oktober 1, 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/22/russia-armenia-azerbaijan-war-nagorno-karabakh/.

Kochnakyan, Artur et al. 2014. Armenia Power Sector Policy Note. World Bank: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/4888914679985¬15807/pdf/9¬4-187¬-REVISE¬D-WP-P133834-PUBLIC-Box391432B-Armenia-Power-Policy-Note-full-version-very-final-ENGLISH.pdf.

Krauthammer, Charles. 1990. “The Unipolar Moment.” Foreign Affairs. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1990-01-01/unipolar-moment.

Kremlin.ru. 2007. “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy.” Munich Security Conference, October 2, 2007. Accessed September 1, 2022. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/copy/24034.

Kremlin.ru. 2008. “Interview given by Dmitry Medvedev to Television Channels Channel One, Rossia, NTV.” President of Russia. August 31, 2008. Accessed September 1, 2022. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/48301.

Kremlin.ru. 2020. “Statement of the presidents of Russia, the United States and France on Nagorno-Karabakh.” President of Russia, October 1, 2020. Accessed September 1, 2022. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64133.

Kucera, Joshua. 2018. “Bolton visits Caucasus amid anti-Iran campaign: All three countries lack American ambassadors.” Eurasianet. October 23, 2018. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://eurasianet.org/bolton-visits-caucasus-amid-anti-iran-campaign.

Lieberthal, Kenneth G. 2011. “The American Pivot to Asia.” The Brookings Institution, December 21, 2011. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-american-pivot-to-asia/.

Mearsheimer, John J. 2014. “Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions that Provoked Putin.” Foreign Affairs 93 (5) (September/October): 1-12.

Mearsheimer, John J. 2018. The great delusion: Liberal dreams and international realities. Yale University Press.

Mehdiyev, Mushvig. 2018. “US Supports Southern Gas Corridor to Ensure “Strong Europe”.” Caspian News, February 19, 2018. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/us-supports-southern-gas-corridor-to-ensure-strong-europe-2018-2-17-20/.

Miller, Christopher. 2018. “U.S. Confirms Delivery Of Javelin Antitank Missiles To Ukraine.” RFE/RL, Inc., April 30, 2018. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.rferl.org/a/javelin-missile-delivery-ukraine-us-confirmed/29200588.html.

Nuruzzaman, Mohammed. 2020. “President Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Campaign and Iran’s Endgame.” Strategic Analysis 44: 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2020.1841099.

ODNI. 2022. “2022 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, March 8, 2022. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publications-2022/item/2279-2022-annual-threat-assessment-of-the-u-s-intelligence-community.

OSCE. 2009. “Statement by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries.” Minsk Group, July 10, 2009. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.osce.org/mg/51152.

Pifer, Steven. 2021. “Order from chaos. Russia’s draft agreements with NATO and the United States: Intended for rejection?” The Brookings Institution, December 21, 2021. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/12/21/russias-draft-agreements-with-nato-and-the-united-states-intended-for-rejection/.

The U.S. Department of State. 2018. “New START Treaty.” February 5, 2018. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.state.gov/new-start/.

The White House. 2021a. “Paris Climate Agreement.” January 20, 2021. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/01/20/paris-climate-agreement/.

The White House. 2021b. “Statement by Press Secretary Jen Psaki on President Biden’s Phone Call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia.” December 30, 2021. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/30/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-president-bidens-phone-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/.

The White House. 2021c. “Interim National Security Strategic Guidance.” March 03, 2021. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/03/interim-national-security-strategic-guidance/.

Vartanyan, Olesya. 2022. “Türkiye, Armenia Take Tentative Steps toward Normalisation.” Commentary: Europe & Central Asia, 18 July 2022. Accessed Oktober 1, 2022. https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/arme-niat%C3%BCrkiye/turkiye-armenia-take-tentative-steps-toward-normalisation.

Wallsh, David. 2020. “The ‘maximum pressure’ campaign undermines Trump’s national security strategy.” Atlantic Council, February 12, 2020. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/the-maximum-pressure-campaign-undermines-trumps-national-security-strategy/.

Zakaria, Fareed. 1999. From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829187.

Zakaria, Fareed. 2008. “The Future of American Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest.” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2008. Accessed September 1, 2022. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2008-05-03/future-american-power.

Zarifian, Julien. 2009. “Iran and Its Two Neighbours Armenia and Azerbaijan: Resuming Relationships under America’s Suspicious Eyes.” Iran & the Caucasus 13 (2): 383-399.

Downloads

Published

2022-12-29

How to Cite

Poghosyan, B. (2022). US policy in the South Caucasus prior to and after the 2020 Karabakh War in the Context of the Evolving Regional and International Geopolitics. Journal of Political Science: Bulletin of Yerevan University, 1(3), 36–50. https://doi.org/10.46991/JOPS/2022.1.3.036

Issue

Section

American Politics