Risks of Military Confrontation in the South Caucasus in the Context of Geopolitical Transformations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46991/JOPS/2026.5.13.134Keywords:
South Caucasus, small states, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, security platform, regional security, military balance, military exercises, military partnership, power diversificationAbstract
This article examines the key issues surrounding the formation of new military-political platforms in the South Caucasus region, which have influenced the shifting balance of power and the regional security agenda. Key issues discussed include the new military-based cooperation existing in the region and the potential geopolitical implications it may have. One thing is certain: the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and subsequently the 2020 war, is impacting regional military cooperation. Therefore, it is imperative to examine a variety of new scenarios and current dynamics. The South Caucasus remains a strategically important yet volatile region, where military cooperation and security dynamics are shaped by evolving geopolitical developments. This article analyzes the military strategies of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, examining their evolving defense strategies, alliances, and regional security interactions using balance-of-power theory and regional security complex theory. This study contributes to an understanding of how small states in contested regions adapt their military strategies in response to emerging geopolitical realities. In this context, regional stability presupposes a joint determination of common threats to national security, the possibilities and limits of joint efforts to achieve certain political goals, and ways to ensure peace and security in the South Caucasus.
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