Fragile Independence in a World of Empires: Armenia and the Unfulfilled Promise of Sovereignty

Abstract

This article examines how formal independence translates into effective sovereignty in post-Soviet Armenia, where internal institutional weaknesses and external structural constraints interact. It argues that independence is continuously reshaped and reproduced through patterns of structural dependence. To assess the gap between formal independence and effective sovereignty, the study constructs a composite Structural Dependence Index (SIDI) that combines trade, energy, and military-security dependence on Russia, and applies it to all post-Soviet states over the period 1994–2024. Cluster analysis, combining SIDI values with V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index scores, groups the states by dependence and regime type, and a Markov transition model traces movement between dependence regimes, with Armenia as the focused case study. The results show growing polarization among post-Soviet states and a nonlinear, reversible trajectory for Armenia, whose dependence rises again after a period of partial diversification. Security reliance on an external patron, together with inherited institutional constraints, produces a mirage of sovereignty in which legal independence coexists with systematically limited autonomy. Armenia’s sovereignty is thus neither fully consolidated nor permanently lost, reflecting a structural inertia that limits sustained de facto autonomy. By demonstrating how post-imperial dependencies are actively reproduced over time, the article contributes to broader debates on sovereignty, small states, and the enduring hierarchies of the post-Soviet international order.