Strategic Diversification of China’s Foreign Policy in Africa: The Belt and Road Initiative and the Transformation of China’s Public Diplomacy in Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46991/JOPS/2026.5.13.095Keywords:
Belt and Road Initiative, Nigeria, public diplomacy, soft power, FOCAC, infrastructure diplomacy, economic statecraft, China-Nigeria relationsAbstract
This article examines the strategic diversification of China’s foreign policy in Africa and its operationalization in Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy and most populous market. It asks how China converts economic engagement - trade, investment, infrastructure, and development assistance - into longer-term political and normative influence, and treats soft power and public diplomacy as analytical instruments rather than descriptive labels. Drawing on a qualitative case study and descriptive data from authoritative sources (SAIS-CARI, UNCTAD, the World Bank, FOCAC documents, and Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics), the article argues that China’s leverage rests on a diversified, bundled model in which infrastructure finance, market access, technical standards, and cultural and digital cooperation are deployed jointly and reinforced through FOCAC and the Belt and Road Initiative. The findings show deepening but asymmetric ties: a persistent Nigerian trade deficit and hydrocarbon-concentrated exports alongside Chinese dominance of manufactured imports and infrastructure contracts. The article contributes a disaggregated, instrument-level account that distinguishes the continental, Sub-Saharan, and bilateral levels of China’s African engagement.
Downloads
References
Adegbite, Oyeyemi. 2026. A Glimpse at Emerging Nigerian-Owned Multinational Corporations. In: Perspectives on the Practice of Management in Africa: The Case of Nigeria. Springer, Singapore, pp. 153-173. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-95-7848-1_7.
Africa Center for Strategic Studies. 2026. What to Expect from Africa-China Relations in 2026. January 16, 2026. Accessed April 16, 2026. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africa-china-relations-2026/.
AidData. 2023. Global Chinese Development Finance Dataset, Version 3.0. Williamsburg, VA: AidData at William & Mary. https://www.aiddata.org/data/aiddatas-global-chinese-development-finance-dataset-version-3-0.
Ajah, Anthony Chinonso, and Jonah Isaac Onuoha. 2025. “China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Infrastructure Development in Nigeria: Unveiling a Paradigm Shift or Repackaging of Failed Ventures?” Journal of Current Chinese Affairs 54 (2): 119-148. https://doi.org/10.1177/18681026251330645.
Ben-Enukora, Charity A., John-Bell S. Okoye, and Babatunde K. Adeyeye. 2025. “Media Framing and Public Opinion on Chinese-Funded Transportation Infrastructure in Nigeria and Kenya: A Comparative Study.” In: Media and Communication Systems for Sustainability in Nigeria, edited by Nelson Okorie, Oluyinka Osunkunle, and Kehinde Oyesomi, 379-407. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-75221-6_19.
Bert, Wayne. 2003. China: Challenging Regional Power. In: The United States, China and Southeast Asian Security: A Changing of the Guard?. Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp. 58-106. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230501355_3
Bijian, Zheng. 2005. “China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’ to Great-Power Status.” Foreign Affairs 84 (5): 18-24. https://doi.org/10.2307/20031702.
Cabestan, Jean-Pierre. 2023. “The Belt and Road Initiative and China’s Hegemony in Africa.” Orbis 67 (4): 544-564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2023.08.005.
Carmody, Pádraig, Ian Taylor, and Tim Zajontz. 2022. “China’s spatial fix and ‘debt diplomacy’ in Africa: Constraining Belt or Road to economic transformation?” Canadian Journal of African Studies 56 (1): 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/00083968.2020.1868014.
Chen, Jing. 2025. “Factors Influencing China’s Participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations.” Journal of Chinese Political Science 30: 289-321. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-024-09891-5.
China Africa Research Initiative. 2025a. Chinese FDI in Africa Data Overview. Accessed April 16, 2026. https://www.sais-cari.org/chinese-investment-in-africa.
China Africa Research Initiative. 2025b. China-Africa bilateral trade data overview. Accessed April 16, 2026. https://www.sais-cari.org/data-china-africa-trade.
China Africa Research Initiative. 2025c. Chinese GLOBAL foreign aid. Accessed April 16, 2026. https://www.sais-cari.org/data-chinese-global-foreign-aid.
China-Global South Project. 2026. “China’s Export Surge to Africa in 2025 Complicates Efforts to Rebalance Trade.” The China–Global South Project. Accessed June 15, 2026. https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/the-2025-china-africa-trade-rundown/.
Chiyemura, Frangton, Elisa Gambino, and Tim Zajontz. 2023. “Infrastructure and the Politics of African State Agency: Shaping the Belt and Road Initiative in East Africa.” Chinese Political Science Review 8: 105-131 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-022-00214-8.
Dagold, Mandy, and Mitchel Stimers. 2024. “The sustainability of developmental programs by the U.S. and China in Sub-Saharan Africa: a comparison of effectiveness.” SN Social Sciences 4, 79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43545-024-00879-9.
Danner, Lukas K. 2018. China’s Peaceful Development Grand Strategy. In: China’s Grand Strategy: Contradictory Foreign Policy?. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, pp. 27-49. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65777-6_3.
dos Santos Junior, Luis Haroldo Pereira. 2025. “Security Risks of Climate Migration in West Africa: The Role of the African Union.” In: Rethinking Climate Change, Security and Politics, edited by Steven Ratuva, Mercedes Alda-Fernández, Dalila Gharbaoui, and Masaki Kataoka, 75-98. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-4843-6_4.
Duan, Kun, Plamen Ivanov, and Richard Werner. 2025. “Deciphering the Chinese Economic Miracle: The Resolution of an Age-Old Economists’ Debate — and Its Central Role in Rapid Economic Development.” Review of Political Economy 37 (1): 202-226. https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2023.2180200.
Duggan, Niall, Jörn-Carsten Gottwald, and Sebastian Bersick. 2024. “Still a Work in Progress: The Ongoing Evolution of the Role Conception Underlying China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” Area Development and Policy 9 (3): 385-406. https://doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2024.2311891.
Ecofin Agency. 2025. “China-Africa Trade up 4.8% to $295bn in 2024.” Ecofin Agency. Accessed June 15, 2026. https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/2001-46339-china-africa-trade-up-4-8-to-295bn-in-2024.
Edeh, Emmanuel C. 2024. “Creating Space for Africa: Revisiting China’s Call for Co-Construction of the Belt and Road Initiative with African Countries.” Journal of Public Affairs 24 (4): e2954. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2954.
Emupenne, Olanrewaju, and Michelle Small. 2024. “Global Challenges, Regional Interventions: Exploring the Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of the African Union and the European Union.” In: Africa-EU Relations and the African Continental Free Trade Area: Redefining the Dynamics of Power and Economic Partnership in a Complex Global Order, edited by Leon Mwamba Tshimpaka, and Samuel Ojo Oloruntoba, 223-251. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-57992-9_11.
Ename Minko, Abraham. 2024. “Intersections of Middle East Crises and African Stability: Assessing the Impact of Regional Conflicts on Peace and Security in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Journal of Political Science: Bulletin of Yerevan University 3 (3(9): 11-33. https://doi.org/10.46991/JOPS/2024.3.9.011.
Ename Minko, Abraham. 2025. “The Nexus Between International Humanitarian Law and Peacebuilding in Africa: A Comprehensive Assessment of Preventive Mechanisms.” Journal of Political Science: Bulletin of Yerevan University 4 (1(10): 79-109. https://doi.org/10.46991/JOPS/2025.4.10.079.
Finance in Africa. 2026. “China’s Exports to Nigeria Surge 37% to $13bn in 2025.” Finance in Africa. Accessed June 15, 2026. https://financeinafrica.com/insights/chinas-exports-to-nigeria-surge/.
Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). 2024. Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027). Beijing: FOCAC, September 5, 2024. Accessed June 15, 2026. http://www.focac.org/eng/zywx_1/zywj/202409/t20240926_11497783.htm.
Frimpong, Isaac Owusu. 2025a. Locating Africa in China’s Quest for Global Superpower Status. In: China’s Emerging Security Diplomacy in Africa. Springer, Singapore, pp. 23-48. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-4364-6_2.
Frimpong, Isaac Owusu. 2025b. Explaining China’s Rising Security Activities in Africa. In: China’s Emerging Security Diplomacy in Africa. Springer, Singapore, pp. 187-205. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-4364-6_8.
Gbadebo, Adedeji. 2025. “China’s Belt And Road Initiative And Nigeria’s Infrastructural Development: Assessing The Risk And Benefits Of Railway Investment.” Journal of Governance and Administrative Reform 6 (2): 264-282. https://doi.org/10.20473/jgar.v6i2.71907.
Guest, Janeen. 2026. Introduction to China’s Infrastructure Development Aid in Africa. In: China's Infrastructure Aid and Investment: Impact on Development in Africa, with a Focus on Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Springer, Cham, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-11964-3_1.
Hu, Le. 2025. The Stalemate Period (2): China’s Efforts to Seek Shared Interests and Identity with Regional Countries Through Belt and Road Initiative. In: China’s Peaceful Rise. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, pp. 177-205. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-2661-8_8.
Hussain, Taofik Oyewo. 2026. “China’s Expanding Footprint in Nigeria: Implications of USAID’s Suspension on Development and Geopolitical Alignments.” Africa Spectrum 61(1): 146-161. https://doi.org/10.1177/00020397251376009.
Idrees, Mahmud Gana, Adamu Abdullahi Bashir, Alhaji Maikano Zurkallaini, Suleiman Dauda Abubakar, and Mohammed Rabiu Fauziyya. 2024. “Nigeria-China Bilateral Relations: Trade, Investment and Political Influence.” Kashere Journal of Politics and International Relations 2 (2): 39-48. https://journals.fukashere.edu.ng/index.php/kjpir/article/view/306.
Isingizwe, Gakwaya P., and Giuseppe T. Cirella. 2023. “The African Union’s Agenda 2063 and Africa’s Tourism Industry.” In: Uncertainty Shocks in Africa: Impact and Equilibrium Strategies for Sound Economic and Social Development, edited by Giuseppe T. Cirella, 101- 120. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21885-9_6.
Jiang, Lu. 2020. Practical Challenges of Chinese ‘Package’ Model of Development Cooperation: A Public Policy Implementation Approach. In: Beyond Official Development Assistance: Chinese Development Cooperation and African Agriculture. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, pp. 181-198. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-32-9507-0_5.
Khan, Shabhaz. 2025. “The Chinese Way—Harnessing the Power of Cultural Heritage for Inclusive and Sustainable Development.” In: Global Development and Cooperation with China: New Ideas, Policies and Initiatives for a Changing World, edited by Henry Huiyao Wang, and Mabel Lu Miao, 203-212. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-2452-2_20.
King, Kenneth. 2025. “Forum on China-Africa Cooperation 9: The Massive Ambitions for Education and Cultural Cooperation Between China and Africa.” ECNU Review of Education 8(3): 663-675. https://doi.org/10.1177/20965311251322185.
Kopiński, Dominik, and Pádraig Carmody. 2023. “The Political Economy of FDI and Spillovers in Africa: Can China Deliver on Hirschman’s Ideas.” In: The Political Economy of Chinese FDI and Spillover Effects in Africa, edited by Dominik Kopiński, Pádraig Carmody, and Ian Taylor, 15-45. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38715-9_2.
Kyirewiah, Francis Kwesi, and Zou Xiaolong. 2022. “20-Years of China-Africa Cooperation: Processes, Developments and Achievements.” Journal of African Foreign Affairs 9 (2): 25-43.
Li, Weiping, amd Saite Lu. 2024. “Assessing Structural Transformation and the Potential Impacts of Belt and Road Initiative Projects in Africa.” The European Journal of Development Research 36: 548-570. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-024-00624-1.
Li, Xiaoyun, Lixia Tang, Jixia Lu, Xiuli Xu, Yue Zhang, Gubo Qi, and Chuanhong Zhang. 2022. Agricultural Development through Science and Technology: The Extraterritorial Travel of Agricultural Technocratic Rationality. In: Chinese Agricultural Technology Aid in Africa. China and Globalization 2.0. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, pp. 37-65. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-9396-0_2.
Liu, Ziwei, and Yibing Ding. 2024. “Enhancing China's image in Africa: The role of the Belt and Road Initiative.” China Economic Review 87: 102239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102239.
Manga Edimo, R. Mireille. 2025. “China’s BRI in Africa: Exploring Development Through Discourses and Policy Practices.” In: China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Africa: Aid Policies and Economic Development, edited by R. Mireille Manga Edimo, and Julien Rajaoson, 1-26. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-80400-7_1
Mees, Heleen. 2016. China as the World’s Factory. In: The Chinese Birdcage: How China’s Rise Almost Toppled the West. Palgrave Macmillan, New York, pp. 21-32. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-58886-9_3.
Milliken, Emily. 2025. “Djibouti is the next arena for US-China competition in the Red Sea.” Atlantic Council, July 31, 2025. Accessed April 16, 2026. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/djibouti-is-the-next-arena-for-us-china-competition-in-the-red-sea/.
Mjenga, Omar. 2024. “China–Africa Partnership in Influencing the New World Order.” In: Enhancing Global Governance in a Fragmented World: Prospects, Issues, and the Role of China. China and Globalization, edited by Henry Huiyao Wang, and Mabel Lu Miao, 215-225. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-2558-8_18.
Montenegro, Renan Holanda, and João Ricardo Cumarú Silva Alves. 2024. “China-Africa Relations, US Reactions: Economy and Security.” In: The Palgrave Handbook on China-Europe-Africa Relations, edited by Yichao Li, Francisco José B. S. Leandro, Jorge Tavares da Silva, and Carlos Rodrigues, 385-406. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-5640-7_18.
Mulugeta, Messay. 2025. “Africa in the global South’s future development trajectory: the role of Africa-China relations.” Asian Review of Political Economy 4 (21). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44216-025-00066-4.
Naz, Samra. 2025. “Dragon’s Ascend: China’s Forging Institutional Resilience in Globalized Landscape.” In: China’s Globalisation and the New World Order, edited by Najimdeen Bakare, and Adam Saud, 121-135. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-3716-4_6.
Ndofor, Hermann Achidi, Carla D. Jones, and Mengge Li. 2025. “What Happens When Your Hand is in My Pocket: The Foreign Policy Effects of China’s Foreign Direct Investment in Africa.” Journal of Business Ethics 199: 393-412 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-024-05794-w.
Oben, Remy Jonkam, Shikha Daga, and Aliya Zhakanova. 2026. “Multidimensional market connectedness amid escalating trade tensions: largest US and Chinese Tech equities, DeFi, and ESG.” Future Business Journal 12, 79. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-026-00784-y.
Odeh, Lemuel Ekedegwa, and Muideen Olalekan Akinade. 2017. “China’s footprint on Nigeria’s telecommunications market: the case of Huawei technologies since 2000.” Journal of the Historical Society of Nigeria 26: 107-121. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48562081.
Pradt, Tilman. 2016. Conclusion: China’s New Foreign Policy. In: China’s New Foreign Policy: Military Modernisation, Multilateralism and the ‘China Threat’. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, pp. 197-204. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33295-6_10.
Razzaq, Tayyaba. 2025. “China’s Economic Expansion: Soft Power Play Through SEZs, BRI, and BRICS.” In: China's Globalisation and the New World Order, edited by Najimdeen Bakare, and Adam Saud, 159-181. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-3716-4_8.
State Council of the People’s Republic of China. 2026. “China Implements Historic Zero Tariffs for All African Nations with Diplomatic Ties.” The State Council of the People’s Republic of China, May 1, 2026. https://english.www.gov.cn/policies/policywatch/202605/01/content_WS69f45e35c6d00ca5f9a0ac01.html.
Udeogu, Celestine Uchechukwu. 2025. “Political economy of the US-OPEC tussle in the global oil market: understanding Nigeria’s revenue and debt crises.” International Politics. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-025-00711-y.
van Eekelen, Willem. 2016. Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. In: Indian Foreign Policy and the Border Dispute with China: A New Look at Asian Relationships. Leiden, The Netherlands: Brill, pp. 53-64. https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004304314_005.
Writer, Staff. 2023. “China delivers major infrastructure projects in Nigeria: Key projects include Lekki Deep Sea Port and Lagos Rail Mass Transit project.” Zawya, February 2, 2023. Accessed April 7, 2026. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/bri/china-delivers-major-infrastructure-projects-in-nigeria-elj6dv3l/
Yang, Manling. 2026. “Framing of Development Policies toward Africa: A Comparative Study of China and the European Union.” Eurasian Geography and Economics 67 (1): 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2024.2361776.
Yigit, Sureyya. 2024. China–Africa Multifaceted Collaboration. In: China-Africa Science, Technology and Innovation Collaboration, edited by Mammo Muchie, Angathevar Baskaran, and Mingfeng Tang, 351-369. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-4576-0_19.
Yin, Huanhuan, Zahiruddin Fitri Abu Hassan, and Syahrul Nizam Kamaruzzaman. 2025. “Research on the Policies of Prefabricated Construction Challenges in China: A Systematic Literature Review.” Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering, May: 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/13467581.2025.2506466.
You, Zhuran, and Yingzi Hu. 2026. The Unity of Heaven and Humanity: On the Origin of Moral Cultivation. In: PPhilosophy and Civilization: How the Idea of Moral Cultivation Shaped China. Springer, Singapore, pp. 27-55. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-95-5660-1_2.
Zhang, Jun. 2014. “Global Economic Crisis and the ‘Spatial Fix’ of China’s World Factory: The Great ‘Long March’ Inland.” In: Global Economic Crisis and the Politics of Diversity, edited by Yıldız Atasoy, 132-154. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137293688_6.
Zhang, Kevin Honglin. 2022. “Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Its Motivations, Determinants, and Impact on the African Economies.” In: The Palgrave Handbook of Africa’s Economic Sectors, edited by Evelyn F. Wamboye, and Bichaka Fayissa, 603-624. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-75556-0_23.
Zhu, Keren, Keya Zhou, and William Brockman. 2026. “Contesting China in Africa: US think tank narratives, 2005-2025.” China International Strategy Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-026-00212-4.
Züfle, Simon, Philipp von Carlowitz, and Jörg Büechl. 2024. “China in Africa: Companies as Enablers and Beneficiaries? An Empirical Evaluation of State-Business Relations in the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.” Business and Politics 26 (4): 573-597. https://doi.org/10.1017/bap.2024.13.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Adedeji Daniel Gbadebo
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
